Bold Box Office Predictions: Can Sausage Party or Pete’s Dragon Topple Suicide Squad?
Notable Openings This Weekend: Sausage Party, Pete’s Dragon
I don’t want to talk about Suicide Squad anymore! Can this film just go away? LEAVE ME IN PEACE! Sadly, we’ll be analyzing every nook and cranny of Squad’s box office like an NFL team dissects a 90 man roster before cut downs. For the love of Dr. June Moone! Here’s the $1 Million question – will Suicide Squad have a BvS level drop off (nearly 70%)? We’ll get to that, but we also have two big releases this weekend. There’s plenty of dragons, food and poorly depicted Joker characterizations to discuss, so let’s get into it.
Sausage Party could finish anywhere from $25 to $55 Million. I have no clue. There’s no question the positivity has been running rampant ever since that first teaser trailer. Every time the trailer plays, it gets a huge reaction. Certainly the R-Rating will hamper its overall potential, but it’s not like an R comedy has never hit massive numbers (The Hangover, Ted). The R-Rated animated feature is certainly an added risk though. While everyone you talk to is excited about the film, it could very well be a niche audience. It’s hard to gauge. I can’t imagine the budget on this is very big, so whether it hits modest, or OMFG level numbers, this surprising critical darling will be celebrating in the aisles.
Despite opening in more theaters, Pete’s Dragon will be another big fat flop for Disney. Not that we’re crying for Disney. Zootopia. The Jungle Book. Captain America: Civil War. Finding Dory. They’ll be fine. It seems like Disney either hits it big, or completely bombs. Pete’s Dragon will join the ranks of The BFG and Alice Through the Looking Glass in the loser category. The movie is getting good reviews, but nobody cares. It will finish third.
Do I really have to talk about Suicide Squad? Here’s why I’m rooting for a huge drop off. As we discussed in our Squad Podcast, there’s no doubt the studio meddled after BvS. They desperately tried to make it light and fluffy. I want Warner Brothers to learn a harsh lesson: Marvelising your movie doesn’t magically fix all your problems. Have confidence in the films you’re making. As Harvey Dent says in The Dark Knight, “The night is darkest just before the dawn. And I promise you, the dawn is coming.” The good reviews and positive audience reaction is coming for DC.
HOW WILL IT ALL BREAK DOWN…
Suicide Squad is going to have a big time drop off, but it won’t be on the level of BvS. It will more likely be in the 65% range. That’s good enough for another #1 finish. Sausage Party will be the real story though. It could give Suicide Squad a real run for its money. Pete’s Dragon goes up in smoke. Thanks. I’ll be here all week.
1. Suicide Squad – $45 Million
2. Sausage Party – $40 Million
3. Pete’s Dragon – $21 Million
4. Jason Bourne – $13.5 Million
5. Bad Moms – $8.5 Million