Bold Box Office Predictions: June 10-12
Notable Openings This Weekend: The Conjuring 2, Now You See Me 2, Warcraft
While this summer has been an apocalypse (no pun intended) of box office disappointments, we’re about to get our first bonafide bomb of the summer. In fact, we may get two. If there’s an obscure sporting event like darts or curling this weekend, they may get more viewers than Warcraft and Now You See Me 2. Nobody cares. But you know who cares the least about these films? The studios that made them. Movie marketing has been absolutely putrid in recent months, but these films take the cake. Both films have posters that are literally just heads staring at you. That’s it. All the heads are configured in a straight line and stare. There’s no emotion. There’s no indication of a smile or frown. Blank expressions. Aren’t these studio jobs hard to get? This is what they come up with? Pathetic. Let’s start out on a positive note though, with a film that will actually perform well.
It seems like every summer there’s one low budget horror movie that over performs, ala The Purge, and the predecessor to the film we’re about to discuss – The Conjuring 2. While everyone is shelling out (again, no pun intended) gazillions of dollars fighting tooth and nail for profits, I’m sure The Conjuring 2 will recoup its production budget in one weekend. The Conjuring came out of nowhere three years ago, and even though it’s barely been marketed, there seems to be a buzz once again. The timing could not be better. X-Men: Apocalypse and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows aren’t the holdovers we thought they’d be. It’s also competing against two duds. The Conjuring 2 will easily scare to #1.
Now let’s get to the garbage. There won’t be any surprises. We all know what’s coming. Warcraft is going to bomb. The end. Although, I guess the jokes on us. Right now in China it’s kicking ass, so this may only be a domestic bomb. When this film was first announced with Duncan Jones as director, there was a ton of excitement. Ever since the first footage was shown, and was met with a collective groan, it seemed like Universal immediately gave up and spent a marketing budget of $10. Seriously, they ran from this movie like it was being played on an old Virtual Boy. The buzz is horrible. The reviews are worse. Add it to the long list of video game movies that came and went. It may be out of theaters by the time you finish this sentence.
While we all know Warcraft is going to bomb, Now You See Me 2 is murky. I know it seems unlikely because the budget was probably kept to under $100 Million, but this will be one of my bolder calls of the entire summer. Even with a low budget, this movie is still going to tank. I’m telling you right now. It was a nice little hit three years ago, but is there anybody out there who remembers that first film? The marketing has flooded us with 900 characters to the point where everyone is just confused. Poor Daniel Radcliffe, as this will be another yawner post Harry Potter. It was already projected to underperform, but it’s going to be even worse. Maybe its biggest magic trick will be that the sequel was never even made.
HOW WILL IT ALL BREAK DOWN…
The Conjuring 2 breezes by these other films that shouldn’t have been released in the summer. I’ve got to think there’s a big enough fan base for Warcraft to will it to $20 Million, but that’s still pretty horrific. Now You See Me 2 implodes.
1. The Conjuring 2 – $38 Million
2. Warcraft – $20 Million
3. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows – $18 Million
4. X-Men: Apocalypse – $13.5 Million
5. Me Before You – $11.5 Million
Daniel Cohen is the Film Editor for Pop-Break. Aside from reviews, Daniel does a weekly box office predictions column, and also contributes monthly Top Tens and Op-Ed’s on all things film. Daniel is a graduate of Bates College with a degree in English, and also studied Screenwriting at UCLA. He can also be read on www.movieshenanigans.com. His movie crush is Jessica Rabbit. Follow him on Twitter @dcohenwriter.